Premium Payments if Enhanced Premium Tax Credits Expire
This data note examines how the expiration of the ACA's enhanced premium tax credits could affect the out-of-pocket portion of premiums for different households.
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This data note examines how the expiration of the ACA's enhanced premium tax credits could affect the out-of-pocket portion of premiums for different households.
The ACA's enhanced premium tax credits arre set to expire at the end of 2025. This calculator estimates how much out-of-pocket premiums would increase for families if Congress does not extend the credits. The projected premium increases are estimated based on family income, zip code, size, ages, and 2025 ACA Marketplace premiums.
This analysis estimates that 48% of adults under age 65 with individual market coverage are either employed by a small business with fewer than 25 workers, self-employed entrepreneurs, or small business owners. Because the vast majority of this coverage is purchased through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplaces, changes to the ACA, including the expiration of the enhanced premium tax credits at the end of this year, would have significant implications for what small business owners and workers spend on their health care.
In his latest column, KFF’s President and CEO Dr. Drew Altman looks at why the issue of extending the enhanced ACA tax credits has languished in Congress without clear direction, despite its importance to the 24 million people who get their coverage in the ACA Marketplaces today and the potentially significant role the issue could play in the midterms if the credits are not extended.
In a new column, Dr. Drew Altman, KFF’s President and CEO, discusses the limits of polling on policy, and what we have learned over more than 30 years of polling about how giving people more information and arraying tradeoffs can change opinion, including on the health policy changes and funding cuts in the current reconciliation bill.
KFF's Health Tracking Poll looks at public awareness and support for ACA Marketplace subsidies and finds that most adults are unaware the subsidies are set to expire soon. Three in four say Congress should extend the subsidies and support persists despite hearing counter arguments.
With the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) enhanced premium tax credits set to expire at the end of 2025, a large majority (77%) of the public favor Congress extending the credits while about one in five (22%) say they should let them expire, the latest KFF Health Tracking Poll finds.
This chart examines individual market enrollment data from 2011 through 2025, when enrollment reached a record high of 25.2 million people. Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace enrollment increased following the enactment of enhanced premium tax credits in 2021, as more individuals became eligible for subsidies.
In his latest column, President and CEO Drew Altman discusses how, with nearly half, or about 10 million MAGA supporters and Republicans receiving coverage through the ACA Marketplaces, the policy changes and cuts being considered by Republicans to the Marketplaces will directly affect their own voters. Altman writes: "Republicans are no longer interested in repealing the ACA but seem comfortable shrinking it significantly if they can, so long as they don’t touch protections for pre-existing conditions, which is now a political third rail."
Every summer, health insurers submit rate filings to state regulators detailing expectations and justifying premium rate changes for ACA-regulated health plans for the coming year. With the enhanced premium tax credits set to expire at the end of 2025, consumers can expect increases in how much they pay for coverage.
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