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A new KFF analysis finds that a congressional proposal to significantly cut federal spending on the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid expansion could reduce total Medicaid spending by up to nearly one-fifth, or $1.9 trillion, over a 10-year period, and end Medicaid coverage for as many as 20 million people.
This analysis examines the potential impacts on states and Medicaid enrollees of eliminating the 90% federal match rate for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) expansion. Eliminating the federal match rate for adults in the Medicaid expansion could reduce Medicaid spending by nearly one-fifth ($1.9 trillion) over a 10-year period and up to nearly a quarter of all Medicaid enrollees (20 million people) could lose coverage.
This brief examines enrollment and financial data through the end of September 2024 from quarterly company earnings reports and calls, financial filings, and other company materials as well as from national administrative data.
A new KFF analysis finds that there were 44 million people enrolled in health coverage through the Affordable Care Act’s Marketplaces and its expansion of the Medicaid program in 2024. That represents about 1 in every 6 people under age 65, or 16.4%.
In 2024, ACA enrollment (including Marketplace, Medicaid expansion, and BHP) reached 44 million, or 16.4% of the nonelderly U.S. population. From 2020-2024, enrollment in ACA coverage increased by over 60%.
So far in 2025, ACA Marketplace enrollment has more than tripled since 2020 in at least 6 states: Texas, Mississippi, Georgia, Louisiana, West Virginia, and Tennessee. All of these states were won by President Trump.
A per capita cap in Medicaid may be a solution in search of a problem. However, if a cap substantially reduced federal Medicaid spending over time, it would put states at financial risk and force cuts to services and rates paid to physicians, hospitals, and nursing homes.
With President-elect Trump returning to the White House and Republicans controlling Congress, significant changes to the Medicaid expansion are expected. This data note provides key facts on the Medicaid expansion, highlighting the financial and coverage impacts of any changes across states that voted for President-elect Trump and those that voted for Vice President Harris.
This brief provides an overview of the Medicare Advantage plans that are available for 2025 and key trends over time. The average Medicare beneficiary will have the option of 34 Medicare Advantage prescription drug (MA-PD) plans in 2025, 2 fewer than the 36 options available in 2024. The average Medicare beneficiary can choose among plans offered by 8 firms in 2025, the same as in 2024.
This brief provides an overview of premiums and benefits in Medicare Advantage plans that are available for 2025 and key trends over time. Two-thirds of all Medicare Advantage plans with Part D prescription drug coverage (MA-PDs) (67%) will charge no premium (other than the Part B premium) in 2025, similar to 2024 (66%). Nearly all Medicare Advantage plans (97% or more) are offering vision, dental and hearing, as they have in previous years. However, the share of plans offering certain benefits has declined, such as over-the-counter benefits (85% in 2024 vs. 72% in 2025), remote access technologies (74% in 2024 vs. 53% in 2025), meal benefits (72% in 2024 vs. 65% in 2025) and transportation (36% in 2024 vs. 29% in 2025).
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