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In total, due to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and other policy changes, the number of people without health insurance is expected to increase by about 17 million. If all of this comes to pass, it would represent the biggest roll back of health insurance coverage ever due to federal policy changes.
This brief evaluates what is currently known about fraud and abuse in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace, including how the final Marketplace Integrity and Affordability Rule and the recently enacted budget reconciliation law change existing Marketplace enrollment and eligibility standards.
This brief estimates the number of current Marketplace enrollees with a mental health diagnosis to understand what changes in enrollment may mean for access to services. Among the 24.3 million Marketplace enrollees in 2025, over 4.4 million individuals are estimated to have at least one mental health diagnosis on a health care claim.
The House of Representatives recently passed a budget reconciliation bill that would appropriate funding for cost-sharing reductions that insurers are required to provide to low-income enrollees in the Affordable Care Act marketplace. This policy watch explains what these cost-sharing reductions are, how they relate to federal spending, and what effect appropriating funding might have on premiums and the uninsured rate.
Until Congress passes the reconciliation bill, Marketplace insurers will face uncertainty regarding the regulatory landscape and may find it difficult to set premiums for 2026.
A CMS rule, once finalized, is generally intended to exist permanently or until it is repealed.... This temporary implementation may preserve the potential for the reconciliation bill to generate official savings through changes to ACA marketplaces in later years (2027–2034) if enacted.
This brief looks at changes to Marketplace plans recently finalized by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) that may incentivize insurers to make their plans less generous. With less generous plans, consumers could face higher out-of-pocket costs, though those who don't qualify for premium tax credits could see lower premiums.
Prior KFF analysis allocated CBO’s federal Medicaid spending reductions and enrollment losses across the states, and this policy watch builds on that analysis to examine the potential impacts in expansion states compared with non-expansion states.
This analysis details the number of people who would become uninsured from policy changes in the ACA Marketplaces and Medicaid. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that, taken together, these changes will result in 16 million more uninsured people in the year 2034 than would otherwise be the case.
In a new column, Dr. Drew Altman, KFF’s President and CEO, discusses the limits of polling on policy, and what we have learned over more than 30 years of polling about how giving people more information and arraying tradeoffs can change opinion, including on the health policy changes and funding cuts in the current reconciliation bill.
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