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Economic and Fiscal Trends in Expansion and Non-Expansion States: What We Know Leading Up to 2014

Appendix Summary Table

Expansion Non-expansion

Demographics

Age Higher Median Share of the Total Population that are Elderly Adults.

Shares of the population for children are declining and growing for the elderly for both groups.

Higher Median Share of the Total Population that are Children.

Shares of the population for children are declining and growing for the elderly for both groups.

Median Household Income Higher Real Median Household Income. Lower Real Median Household Income.
Poverty Rate Lower Median Poverty Level. Higher Median Poverty Level.
Health Insurance Lower Median Uninsured Rate. Higher Median Uninsured Rate.

Revenue and Tax Capacity

Tax Collections Faster Recovery since the Great Recession. Slower Recovery since the Great Recession.
Tax Capacity Higher Median Level of Tax Capacity, Regardless of Measure.

Median Level of Tax Capacity has been Increasing at a Faster Rate over Time.

Lower Median Level of Tax Capacity, Regardless of Measure.

Median Level of Tax Capacity has been Increasing at a Slower Rate over Time.

Tax Effort
(Collections as a Share of Capacity)
Median Collections per Capita is higher.

Median Tax Collections as a Share of Tax Capacity is Higher and has been Increasing on Average.

Median Collections per Capita is lower.

Median Tax Collections as a Share of Tax Capacity is Lower and has been Decreasing on Average.

Composition of Tax Revenue Sources Typical State relies more on Personal Income Taxes. Typical State relies more on General Sales Taxes.
Tax Policy Changes State lawmakers have acted to raise taxes in a number of years since 2008. State lawmakers have acted to cut taxes in a number of years since 2008.

State Budgets

Total State and Local Budget Spending Higher Median Total Budget Spending per capita. Lower Median Total Budget Spending per capita.
Distribution Across Spending Categories Higher Median Spending per capita levels on Medicaid, K-12 Education, Police and Corrections. Higher Median Spending per capita levels for Health and Hospitals, Highways and Higher Education.
Change in Spending Across programs Stronger Growth in Median Spending per capita for Medicaid post-recession.

Smaller Decline in Median Spending per capita for K-12 Education post-recession.

Weaker Growth in Median Spending per capita for Medicaid post-recession.

Larger Decline in Median Spending per capita for K-12 Education post-recession.

Employment

Unemployment Median Unemployment Rate has Declined in Recent Years. Median Unemployment Rate has Declined in Recent Years.
Health Sector Employment Health-related Employment is a Higher Share of Total Employment.

Strong growth in health-related employment for both groups; growth slowed in 2008-2013.

Health-related Employment is a Lower Share of Total Employment.

Strong growth in health-related employment for both groups; growth slowed in 2008-2013.

Appendix A - Methodology and Definitions

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