Data Note: A Look At Swing Voters Leading Up To The 2020 Election

Table A.1: Socioeconomic Demographics of Swing Voters

 

Total voters

Swing voters
(30%)

Decided voters
(63%)

Definitely
Trump voters
(29%)

Definitely
Democratic voters
(34%)

Race/ethnicity

 

 

 

 

 

White, non-Hispanic

68%

70%

68%

83%

55%

Black, non-Hispanic

11%

9%

13%

1%

23%

Hispanic

11%

9%

12%

8%

14%

Other, non-Hispanic

7%

9%

5%

4%

6%

Gender

 

 

 

 

 

Male

49%

52%

48%

56%

41%

Female

51%

48%

52%

44%

59%

Age

 

 

 

 

 

18-29

18%

27%

14%

11%

16%

30-49

30%

31%

30%

28%

32%

50-64

28%

25%

30%

31%

29%

65+

23%

16%

26%

30%

22%

Education level

 

 

 

 

 

High school or less

34%

31%

34%

41%

29%

Some college

32%

33%

32%

34%

30%

College +

34%

36%

33%

25%

40%

Community type

 

 

 

 

 

Rural

13%

13%

13%

17%

9%

Suburban

54%

58%

53%

56%

51%

Urban

32%

29%

34%

27%

39%

Table A.2: Political Demographics of Swing Voters

 

Total voters

Swing voters
(30%)

Decided voters
(63%)

Definitely
Trump voters
(29%)

Definitely Democratic voters
(34%)

Party Identification

 

 

 

 

 

Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents

45%

37%

52%

5%

92%

         Democrat

30%

18%

39%

4%

68%

         Independent/lean Dem

15%

18%

14%

1%

24%

Pure independent

10%

17%

3%

4%

4%

         Independent lean Rep

16%

23%

12%

24%

1%

         Republican

27%

21%

32%

67%

2%

Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents

42%

43%

43%

91%

3%

Undesignated

2%

3%

1%

1%

1%

Trump Approval

 

 

 

 

 

Strongly approve/somewhat approve

44%

44%

45%

95%

3%

Strongly disapprove/somewhat disapprove

54%

53%

55%

5%

97%

Ideology

 

 

 

 

 

Liberal

24%

16%

31%

5%

52%

Moderate

38%

56%

29%

20%

37%

Conservative

35%

26%

38%

73%

10%

Findings Methodology