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Prior KFF analysis allocated CBO’s federal Medicaid spending reductions and enrollment losses across the states, and this policy watch builds on that analysis to examine the potential impacts in expansion states compared with non-expansion states.
If Congress passes the reconciliation bill with the Finance Committee provision, 22 states might have to reduce their provider taxes on either hospitals or managed care organizations, cutting a key source of state Medicaid funding in those states. This policy watch explains how the Finance Committee provision would reduce states’ Medicaid spending, and the implications for expansion states.
On May 22, the House passed a budget reconciliation bill that includes significant changes to the Medicaid program. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the bill would reduce federal Medicaid spending by $793 billion and reduce the number of people covered by Medicaid in 2034 by 10.3 million. Many of the reductions in coverage will be among the 22 million Medicaid enrollees ages 50 and older.
This analysis details the number of people who would become uninsured from policy changes in the ACA Marketplaces and Medicaid. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that, taken together, these changes will result in 16 million more uninsured people in the year 2034 than would otherwise be the case.
The Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) latest estimate shows that the One Big Beautiful Bill would reduce federal Medicaid spending by $793 and that the Medicaid provisions would increase the number of uninsured people by 7.8 million. Previous CBO estimates show that 10.3 million fewer people would be enrolled in Medicaid in 2034. Building on prior KFF analysis, this analysis allocates these estimated federal spending reductions and enrollment losses across the states.
Amid renewed interest in Medicaid work requirements as part of a broader legislative package designed to significantly reduce federal Medicaid spending, KFF has updated its analysis of the work status and demographic characteristics of Medicaid enrollees with the latest data. Data show that, in 2023, 92% of Medicaid adults were either working full or part-time (64%), or were not working due to barriers to work such as caregiving responsibilities, illness or disability, or school attendance…
Amid debates to limit federal Medicaid support, this brief presents five facts to know about Medicaid’s role for family planning.
This brief examines Medicaid’s pregnancy and postpartum coverage and its support for strengthening and improving maternal health outcomes.
Some critics of Medicaid expansion have argued that expansion diverts resources away from other groups of Medicaid enrollees, including people with disabilities and children, and that expansion enrollees are “able-bodied” implying they have minimal health care needs. However, data show that expansion states spend more per enrollee overall and on each eligibility group than non-expansion states and that nearly half of expansion enrollees have a chronic condition. This data note analyzes 2021 Medicaid claims data…
This analysis examines the potential impacts of a provision in the House reconciliation bill that proposes reducing the federal matching rate for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Medicaid expansion population from 90% to 80% for states that either provide health coverage or financial assistance to purchase health coverage to individuals who are not “a qualified alien.”
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