Analysis of 2016 Premium Changes in the Affordable Care Act’s Health Insurance Marketplaces

Updated Oct. 27, 2015 to include final rates for CA, ID, and NY, and an update to NM rates.

The table below presents an update to our previous analysis of 2016 changes in premiums for the second-lowest cost (“benchmark”) silver marketplace plans in major cities in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Among these major cities, the percent change from last year in the benchmark premium ranges from -10.6% in Seattle, Washington to 38.4% in Nashville, TN.  The simple average of these rate changes is 10.1% before accounting for the premium tax credit.

For a 40 year old making $30,000 per year, the average change after tax credits would be -0.2% (holding age and income constant). 2016 benchmark silver rates for a 40 year old will range from $183 per month in Albuquerque, NM to $719 per month in Anchorage, Alaska before accounting for the tax credit. If this 40 year old makes $30,000 per year, the premium paid by the consumer after the tax credit would range from $163 per month in Anchorage, Alaska to $206 per month in most of the country.

We added a new row showing the average premium change weighed by the 2015 effectuated enrollment for the state in which the city is located. Enrollment data are not available for all counties or cities. The weighted average increase is 3.6% across these cities, before accounting for the premium tax credit.

For comparison, these cities saw an average change of -0.3% in the benchmark premium from 2014 – 2015 (the weighted average decrease was also -0.3%) before accounting for the tax credit.