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BTD Health Policy in 2026

Health Policy in 2026

President and CEO Dr. Drew Altman forecasts eight things to look for in health policy in 2026. “First and foremost,” he writes, “is the role health care affordability will play in the midterms.” And, he notes: “The average cost of a family policy for employers could approach $30,000 and cost sharing and deductibles will rise again after plateauing for several years.”

View all of Drew’s Beyond the Data Columns

New and Noteworthy

Policy Changes Bring Renewed Focus on High-Deductible Health Plans

Policy changes, anticipated increases in premium costs for enrollees, and new standards for health savings accounts may encourage consumers to seek out plans with lower premiums but higher deductibles. This issue brief explores the features of bronze and catastrophic plans, coverage and costs, and the complicated choices consumers face.

Explaining Individual Coverage Health Reimbursement Arrangements (ICHRAs)

Examining Short-Term Limited-Duration Health Plans

Health Savings Account Provisions in the 2025 Tax and Spending Law

Consumer Experiences with Health Insurance

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  • The Missing Debate Over Rising Health-Care Deductibles

    From Drew Altman

    In this Wall Street Journal Think Tank column, Drew Altman discusses what may be the most important change in the American health system—hint it’s not the Affordable Care Act—which has occurred without much discussion.

  • 2019 Employer Health Benefits Survey

    Report

    Annual premiums for employer-sponsored family health coverage reached $20,576 this year, up 5% from last year, with workers on average paying $6,015 toward the cost of their coverage. The average deductible among covered workers in a plan with a general annual deductible is $1,655 for single coverage. Fifty-six percent of small firms and 99% of large firms offer health benefits to at least some of their workers, with an overall offer rate of 57%.

  • Pre-Existing Condition Prevalence for Individuals and Families

    Issue Brief

    This analysis estimates that almost 54 million people – or 27% of all adults under 65 —have pre-existing health conditions that would likely have made them uninsurable in the individual markets that existed in most states before the Affordable Care Act. Almost half (45%) of non-elderly families include at least one adult with such a pre-existing condition. The analysis also includes estimates by age, state and gender.

  • How Many of the Uninsured Can Purchase a Marketplace Plan for Free in 2020?

    Issue Brief

    This analysis looks at how many of the remaining uninsured are eligible for premium subsidies that are large enough to cover the entire cost of a bronze plan, which is the minimum level of coverage available on the Marketplaces. It estimates 28% of uninsured individuals who could shop on the ACA Marketplace, or 4.7 million people nationwide, are eligible to purchase a bronze plan with $0 premiums after subsidies in 2020.

  • How Many Employers Could Be Affected by the High-Cost Plan Tax

    Issue Brief

    The high cost plan tax (HCPT) sometimes referred to as the Cadillac tax, is an excise tax on the cost of employer health benefit exceeding certain threshold. The HCPT provides a powerful incentive to control health plans costs over time, whether through efficiency gains or shifts in costs to workers. While many employers do not expect that the tax will take effect in 2022, others are already amending their health programs in anticipation. We estimate if the tax takes effect in 2022, 21% will be subject to the tax, increasing to 37% by 2030 unless firms reduce costs. Larger shares would be affected when counting workers' voluntary contributions to Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs)

  • Health Care Costs as Much as a New Car

    From Drew Altman

    Health care for a family covered by a large employer cost, on average, $22,885 last year. That’s $2,000 more than the sticker price for a brand-new Volkswagen Beetle. Drew Altman discusses why it matters in this Axios column.