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The ACA MarketplaceS

Change in February effectuated enrollment, by state, 2025-2026

How Has ACA Marketplace Enrollment Changed Across States in 2026?

ACA Marketplace enrollment fell this year in every state except New Mexico, which was the only state to fully replace the enhanced premium tax credits that expired last year with a state-funded subsidy, according to a new KFF analysis of effectuated enrollment data. The Marketplace enrollment decline—the first in seven years—follows several years of rapid enrollment growth and coincides with the end of the enhanced federal subsidies.

How Much and Why ACA Marketplace Premiums Are Going Up in 2027

ACA Marketplaces insurers are proposing a median premium increase of 15% in 2027, according to KFF’s updated analysis of 276 insurers with publicly available filings across all 50 states and the District of Columbia. This is the second consecutive year of double-digit premium hikes. Last year’s median nationwide proposed rate change was 18%, and the median finalized rate change was 20%. While this proposed rate change is lower than last year, it represents the second-highest requested rate change since 2018, as premium growth had been relatively flat in this market for several years.

About the ACA

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Did the Affordable Care Act Make Health Care More Affordable?

The expiration of the ACA’s enhanced premium tax credits at the start of 2026, combined with rising insurer premiums, put a spotlight on health care affordability that extends beyond Marketplace enrollees. KFF’s Cynthia Cox examines the ACA’s record and the broader underlying question it raises: what’s a fair price for Americans people to pay for health care?

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  • Medicaid Moving Forward

    Issue Brief

    Medicaid is the nation’s main public health insurance program for people with low incomes, and it is the single largest source of health coverage in the U.S., covering nearly 70 million Americans. Medicaid also finances 16% of total personal health spending in the nation. States design and administer their own Medicaid programs within federal requirements, and states and the federal government finance the program jointly. As a major payer, Medicaid is a core source of…

  • Health-Care Deductibles Climbing Out of Reach

    From Drew Altman

    In this column for The Wall Street Journal's Think Tank, Drew Altman explores the trend of higher deductibles in health plans and discusses a new analysis showing that many people with private insurance don’t have sufficient financial resources to pay a mid- or high-range deductible.

  • Repayments and Refunds: Estimating the Effects of 2014 Premium Tax Credit Reconciliation

    Issue Brief

    This analysis estimates the range of repayment or refund amounts of the advanced premium tax credits issued to enrollees who experience income volatility between the time of enrollment and tax credit reconciliation. Using a simulation model among all households eligible for advance payments of the premium tax credits under the Affordable Care Act, it estimates that half would owe a repayment while 45 percent would be issued a refund of some or all of premium…

  • What’s at Stake in a Potential Repeal of the ACA Medicaid Expansion?

    News Release

    President-elect Trump and Republican leaders in Congress have vowed to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and replace it with an alternative plan. There are now 32 states (including DC) that have adopted the ACA’s Medicaid expansion. While the details of a repeal-and-replace plan are not yet available to assess its impact, a new brief reveals what’s potentially at stake for Medicaid in the debate by examining the changes in health coverage and financing that…

  • Improving the Affordability of Coverage through the Basic Health Program in Minnesota and New York

    Issue Brief

    To date, Minnesota and New York are the only states to have adopted a Basic Health Program (BHP), an option in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) that permits state-administered coverage in lieu of marketplace coverage for those with incomes below 200% of the federal poverty level (FPL) who would otherwise qualify for marketplace subsidies. BHP covers adults with incomes between 138-200% of FPL and lawfully present non-citizens with incomes below 138% FPL whose immigration status…

  • The Future of Contraceptive Coverage

    Issue Brief

    This issue brief explains the Affordable Care Act's current contraceptive coverage rule, the impact it has had on women, and the state of contraceptive coverage if the rule is eliminated or modified.

  • Comparison of Medicare Provisions in Recent Bills and Proposals to Repeal and Replace the Affordable Care Act

    Issue Brief

    Repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act is a top priority of the Trump Administration and the Republican leadership, which could have implications for the Medicare program. This brief provides a side-by-side comparison of the Medicare-related provisions in six bills and proposals that would repeal the ACA, excluding proposals that would not directly affect Medicare.

  • High-Risk Pools as Fallback for High-Cost Patients Require New Rules

    From Drew Altman

    In this Wall Street Journal Think Tank column, Drew Altman examines how Republicans would “split the risk pools” between the healthier and the sick in their Affordable Care Act replacement plans, using state high risk pools as a fallback for higher cost patients, and examines the steps that would be necessary to make them effective based on prior experience in the states.