Affordable Care Act

As Congressional Republicans and President Trump search for trillions of dollars in cuts to mandatory federal spending that could help offset the cost of extending expiring tax cuts, this brief analyzes current support from the federal government for health programs and services, including both spending and tax subsidies as context for those federal budget discussions.

KFF’s president and CEO Drew Altman writes in a new column about the factors driving the biggest health policy decisions now—how to pay for tax cuts and whether President Trump wants another big fight about health care.

A new KFF analysis finds that a congressional proposal to significantly cut federal spending on the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid expansion could reduce total Medicaid spending by up to nearly one-fifth, or $1.9 trillion, over a 10-year period, and end Medicaid coverage for as many as 20 million people.The impacts…

This analysis examines the potential impacts on states and Medicaid enrollees of eliminating the 90% federal match rate for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) expansion. Eliminating the federal match rate for adults in the Medicaid expansion could reduce Medicaid spending by nearly one-fifth ($1.9 trillion) over a 10-year period and up to nearly a quarter of all Medicaid enrollees (20 million people) could lose coverage.

Health coverage enrollment through the ACA marketplaces now exceeds 24 million people, a dramatic increase in recent years fueled largely by enhanced premium aid. With the subsidies set to expire at the end of this year, Congress and the Trump Administration will be faced with a choice of whether and how to extend the subsidies, alongside broader discussion about the budget. On February 10, KFF’s Larry Levitt moderated a 45-minute virtual discussion with an expert panel to explore these questions and more about the future of the ACA.

This analysis and interactive map illustrate how much more enrollees in Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace plans would pay in premiums at the congressional district level if the enhanced subsidies were to expire in 2026 as under current law. The tool presents scenarios for an older couple who would lose subsidy eligibility due to their income level and for a single person with a $31,000 income. It also presents net average premium payment increases in each district in states that use Healthcare.gov.

In a new column, KFF President and CEO Drew Altman discusses what President Trump’s decision to pull back the broad freeze in federal grant funding might portend for his response to future policies in health that prove controversial or unpopular.