Policy Uncertainty is Creating Challenges for ACA Marketplace Insurers
Until Congress passes the reconciliation bill, Marketplace insurers will face uncertainty regarding the regulatory landscape and may find it difficult to set premiums for 2026.
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Until Congress passes the reconciliation bill, Marketplace insurers will face uncertainty regarding the regulatory landscape and may find it difficult to set premiums for 2026.
KFF Vice President Cynthia Cox takes a broader look at the expiring enhanced tax credits, which Congressional Democrats have made central to their government funding demands, and how they lower health costs for many traditionally Republican constituencies, such as people in southern states, small business owners and employees, farmers and ranchers, older adults, and rural Americans.
As Democrats push for an extension of the ACA’s enhanced premium tax credits, new data from KFF show the extent to which states won by Trump in 2024 have come to rely on the ACA Marketplaces and the tax credits, which make health care coverage more affordable for low- and middle-income Marketplace enrollees.
The ACA enhanced premium tax credits expanded financial assistance to more Marketplace enrollees, an expansion that was especially helpful to older middle-income enrollees, who would see the largest increases in out-of-pocket premiums if the enhanced credits expire.
Affordable Care Act Marketplace insurers are raising premiums by an average of 18% next year, due in part to the expiring enhanced premium tax credits. Even if the credits are extended in shutdown negotiations, it is unlikely that insurers will have time to revise premiums, though the credits would still offer enrollees relief from them.
The expiration of the ACA enhanced premium tax credits at the end of this year would reintroduce the “subsidy cliff,” which abruptly ends the credit for Marketplace enrollees earning over 400% of poverty. That means some middle-income enrollees, especially older ones, would spend a much larger share of their income on premium payments than those earning just slightly less with the credit.
The amount health insurers charge for coverage on the ACA Marketplaces is rising 26%, on average, in 2026.... Most enrollees would face even sharper increases in what they pay if they ACA’s enhanced premium tax credits expire.
Data currently being released represent Open Enrollment Marketplace plan selections, or how many people have signed up for or been automatically renewed into 2026 coverage. These data do not necessarily translate to effectuated enrollments. That is because people who have selected a plan or been automatically renewed may not ultimately choose to pay for their plan, thus “effectuating” their coverage.
President Trump announced a health care framework that leaves open key questions, including those about out-of-pocket costs, premiums, federal spending, and health coverage for people with pre-existing conditions.
A recent draft regulation issued by the Treasury Department describes who is eligible for premium tax credits to help them afford coverage offered through health insurance exchanges beginning in 2014. Tax credits will be available to people with incomes between 100 and 400 percent of the poverty level who are not eligible for public coverage such as Medicaid or Medicare and who are not offered affordable health coverage by an employer. The approach that the…
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