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Data currently being released represent Open Enrollment ACA Marketplace plan selections, or how many people have signed up for or been automatically renewed into 2026 coverage. These data do not necessarily translate to enrollments. That is because people who have selected a plan or been automatically renewed may not ultimately choose to pay for their coverage, thus “effectuating” their enrollment.
After failed Senate votes late last year and no subsequent bipartisan agreement, the enhanced premium tax credits expired as of January 1. Some states, particularly those operating State-Based Marketplaces (SBMs), have been preparing for this possibility for months and are moving to blunt the impact on consumers by implementing their own state-funded subsidies and implementing other programs aimed at stabilizing the cost of unsubsidized premiums.
In his latest Beyond the Data column, President and CEO Dr. Drew Altman discusses whether Democrats can make the Medicaid and ACA cuts a winning political issue before the midterm elections and before most people feel the cuts.
Until Congress passes the reconciliation bill, Marketplace insurers will face uncertainty regarding the regulatory landscape and may find it difficult to set premiums for 2026.
If Congress passes the reconciliation bill with the Finance Committee provision, 22 states might have to reduce their provider taxes on either hospitals or managed care organizations, cutting a key source of state Medicaid funding in those states. This policy watch explains how the Finance Committee provision would reduce states’ Medicaid spending, and the implications for expansion states.
In a new column, Dr. Drew Altman, KFF’s President and CEO, discusses the limits of polling on policy, and what we have learned over more than 30 years of polling about how giving people more information and arraying tradeoffs can change opinion, including on the health policy changes and funding cuts in the current reconciliation bill.
ACA Marketplace changes are technical and numerous but consequential. While more attention has been focused on cuts to Medicaid, upcoming changes to the ACA Marketplaces could lead to just as many people losing health insurance coverage.
In his latest column, President and CEO Drew Altman discusses how, with nearly half, or about 10 million MAGA supporters and Republicans receiving coverage through the ACA Marketplaces, the policy changes and cuts being considered by Republicans to the Marketplaces will directly affect their own voters. Altman writes: "Republicans are no longer interested in repealing the ACA but seem comfortable shrinking it significantly if they can, so long as they don’t touch protections for pre-existing conditions, which is now a political third rail."
Every summer, health insurers submit rate filings to state regulators detailing expectations and justifying premium rate changes for ACA-regulated health plans for the coming year. With the enhanced premium tax credits set to expire at the end of 2025, consumers can expect increases in how much they pay for coverage.
This analysis illustrates how provisions included in the House budget reconciliation bill could expose Marketplace enrollees with unpredictable incomes to higher penalties when filing taxes if they underestimate their incomes. About one in four potential Marketplace shoppers had incomes that varied at least 20 percent from the beginning to the end of the year.
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