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The unwinding of the continuous enrollment provision will play out differently across the states based on policy choices states have made and variation in their administrative infrastructures. Some states have adopted multiple policies that are more likely to promote continued coverage among those who remain eligible.
Between 8 and 24 million people across the U.S. could be disenrolled from Medicaid during the unwinding of the program’s continuous enrollment provision. KFF's new analysis offers three illustrative scenarios for how state-level Medicaid enrollment could decline between March 2023 and May 2024, ranging from 8 percent to 28 percent of total enrollees.
The pandemic continuous enrollment provision and other research show that continuous eligibility reduces Medicaid disenrollment and “churn” rates and helps to ensure stable coverage. As many Medicaid enrollees are currently experiencing disruptions in coverage as a result of the Medicaid unwinding, a number of states are pursuing strategies to help promote continuity of coverage, including through unwinding waivers and Section 1115 demonstration waivers. This Waiver Watch summarizes approved and pending Section 1115 waivers with continuous eligibility provisions for children and adults in Medicaid.
Over 25 million people were disenrolled from Medicaid and over 56 million had their coverage renewed, according to KFF’s analysis of the outcomes of the Medicaid unwinding, which nearly all states have now completed.
Using data from the KFF Medicaid Enrollment and Unwinding Tracker, this analysis reports data on unwinding renewal outcomes through June 2024 and examines Medicaid enrollment changes from February 2020 through May 2024, the most recent federal enrollment data available, nationally and across states.
This analysis examines who was eligible for Medicare and/or Medicaid between 2002 and 2022 because they received disability benefits from one of the country's Social Security disability programs, Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) or Supplemental Security Income (SSI). Many who receive SSDI and SSI qualify for both Medicare and Medicaid, known as dual-eligible individuals.
In 2024, more than half (54%) of eligible Medicare beneficiaries are enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans. This brief provides current information about Medicare Advantage enrollment, by plan type and firm, and shows how enrollment varies by state and county.
This analysis examines the potential impacts on states, Medicaid enrollees, and providers of implementing a per capita cap on federal Medicaid spending, which is one proposal that has been discussed in Congress. Such a plan could decrease federal Medicaid spending by $532 billion to almost $1 trillion over a 10-year period, depending on how states respond. An estimated 15 million people could lose Medicaid coverage by 2034.
A new KFF analysis finds that a congressional proposal to significantly cut federal spending on the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid expansion could reduce total Medicaid spending by up to nearly one-fifth, or $1.9 trillion, over a 10-year period, and end Medicaid coverage for as many as 20 million people.
This analysis examines the potential impacts on states and Medicaid enrollees of eliminating the 90% federal match rate for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) expansion. Eliminating the federal match rate for adults in the Medicaid expansion could reduce Medicaid spending by nearly one-fifth ($1.9 trillion) over a 10-year period and up to nearly a quarter of all Medicaid enrollees (20 million people) could lose coverage.
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