What's in Store for Medicare's Part B Premiums and Deductible in 2016, and Why?
Appendix A
| Table 1: Historical and Projected Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment, Average Monthly Social Security Benefits, and Medicare Part B and Part D Premiums and Deductibles, 1975-2024 | ||||||
| Year | Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment1 | Average Monthly Social Security Benefit2 | Monthly Part B Premium3 |
Part B Premium Increase (%) | Part B Deductible3 | Part B Deductible Increase (%) |
| 1975 | 8.0% | $212.07 | $6.70 | — | $60 | — |
| 1976 | 6.4% | $232.75 | $6.70 | 0% | $60 | 0% |
| 1977 | 5.9% | $254.33 | $7.20 | 7% | $60 | 0% |
| 1978 | 6.5% | $277.89 | $7.70 | 7% | $60 | 0% |
| 1979 | 9.9% | $314.47 | $8.20 | 6% | $60 | 0% |
| 1980 | 14.3% | $359.25 | $8.70 | 6% | $60 | 0% |
| 1981 | 11.2% | $396.28 | $9.60 | 10% | $60 | 0% |
| 1982 | 7.4% | $410.95 | $11.00 | 15% | $75 | 25% |
| 1983 | 3.5% | $410.23 | $12.20 | 11% | $75 | 0% |
| 1984 | 3.5% | $429.46 | $14.60 | 20% | $75 | 0% |
| 1985 | 3.1% | $443.09 | $15.50 | 6% | $75 | 0% |
| 1986 | 1.3% | $456.93 | $15.50 | 0% | $75 | 0% |
| 1987 | 4.2% | $484.01 | $17.90 | 15% | $75 | 0% |
| 1988 | 4.0% | $504.88 | $24.80 | 39% | $75 | 0% |
| 1989 | 4.7% | $538.70 | $31.90 | 29% | $75 | 0% |
| 1990 | 5.4% | $559.32 | $28.60 | -10% | $75 | 0% |
| 1991 | 3.7% | $592.77 | $29.90 | 5% | $100 | 33% |
| 1992 | 3.0% | $620.66 | $31.80 | 6% | $100 | 0% |
| 1993 | 2.6% | $645.91 | $36.60 | 15% | $100 | 0% |
| 1994 | 2.8% | $665.67 | $41.10 | 12% | $100 | 0% |
| 1995 | 2.6% | $688.37 | $46.10 | 12% | $100 | 0% |
| 1996 | 2.9% | $708.70 | $42.50 | -8% | $100 | 0% |
| 1997 | 2.1% | $734.53 | $43.80 | 3% | $100 | 0% |
| 1998 | 1.3% | $754.23 | $43.80 | 0% | $100 | 0% |
| 1999 | 2.5% | $791.18 | $45.50 | 4% | $100 | 0% |
| 2000 | 3.5% | $842.84 | $45.50 | 0% | $100 | 0% |
| 2001 | 2.6% | $881.12 | $50.00 | 10% | $100 | 0% |
| 2002 | 1.4% | $927.23 | $54.00 | 8% | $100 | 0% |
| 2003 | 2.1% | $963.80 | $58.70 | 9% | $100 | 0% |
| 2004 | 2.7% | $961.12 | $66.60 | 13% | $100 | 0% |
| 2005 | 4.1% | $1,011.60 | $78.20 | 17% | $110 | 10% |
| 2006 | 3.3% | $1,045.85 | $88.50 | 13% | $124 | 13% |
| 2007 | 2.3% | $1,077.55 | $93.50 | 6% | $131 | 6% |
| 2008 | 5.8% | $1,083.34 | $96.40 | 3% | $135 | 3% |
| 2009 | 0.0% | $1,168.60 | $96.40 | 0% | $135 | 0% |
| 2010 | 0.0% | $1,189.77 | $110.50 | 15% | $155 | 15% |
| 2011 | 3.6% | $1,231.96 | $115.40 | 4% | $162 | 5% |
| 2012 | 1.7% | $1,309.58 | $99.90 | -13% | $140 | -14% |
| 2013 | 1.5% | $1,320.58 | $104.90 | 5% | $147 | 5% |
| 2014 | 1.7% | $1,367.58 | $104.90 | 0% | $147 | 0% |
| 2015 | 0.0% | $1,361.91 | $104.90 | 0% | $147 | 0% |
| 2016 | 3.1% | $1,341.00 | $118.80/$121.804 | 13%/16%4 | $166 | 13% |
| 2017 | 2.7% | n/a | $120.70 | 2%5 | $169 | 2% |
| 2018 | 2.7% | n/a | $122.30 | 1% | $171 | 1% |
| 2019 | 2.7% | n/a | $132.20 | 8% | $185 | 8% |
| 2020 | 2.7% | n/a | $140.00 | 6% | $196 | 6% |
| 2021 | 2.7% | n/a | $147.60 | 5% | $207 | 6% |
| 2022 | 2.7% | n/a | $155.80 | 6% | $218 | 5% |
| 2023 | 2.7% | n/a | $164.50 | 6% | $230 | 6% |
| 2024 | 2.7% | n/a | $173.90 | 6% | $243 | 6% |
| NOTES: n/a is not available. 1COLA increase applies to Social Security benefits in the following year. 2016-2024 amounts are projected. 2Average monthly benefit for retired worker, by year of entitlement, December of each year, except for 2015 (August) and 2016 (January estimate). 32017-2024 amounts are projected and do not include monthly repayment amounts (where applicable). 4Premium amounts and percent increases shown without and with the $3 repayment amount. 5Amount represents percent increase over 2016 premium rate without the repayment surcharge. SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation, data from CMS, 2015 Medicare Trustees report, 2015 Social Security Trustees report, and 2016 Social Security Fact Sheet. |
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Appendix B
How the Hold-Harmless Provision Works
The following example illustrates how the hold-harmless provision works in a typical year with a Social Security COLA. Between 2012 and 2013, the standard Medicare premium increased by $5 from $99.90 to $104.90, and the Social Security COLA for 2013 was 1.7 percent. For a Medicare beneficiary receiving Social Security benefits of $300 per month in 2012, the 1.7 percent COLA translates to an additional $5.10 in 2013, which is sufficient to cover the premium increase. But for a beneficiary receiving $250 per month in Social Security benefits, the 1.7 percent COLA translates to just $4.25 in additional benefits in 2013, which would trigger the hold-harmless provision for this beneficiary. Rather than paying the full standard amount of $104.90 in 2013, this beneficiary would only be responsible for paying an additional $4.25 for the Part B premium, or $104.15. If the hold-harmless provision were not in place, this beneficiary would face a reduction in their Social Security benefits in order to pay the standard Part B premium amount.