KFF Tracking Poll on Health Information and Trust: Tylenol-Autism Link and Vaccine Policies

Key Findings

• KFF’s latest Tracking Poll on Health Information and Trust, fielded a day after the Trump administration warned that taking Tylenol during pregnancy can cause autism in children despite no evidence of a causal relationship, finds that three-quarters (77%) of the public report having heard this claim, and many are unsure whether it is true. Overall, just 4% of adults say it is “definitely true” that taking Tylenol during pregnancy increases the risk of the child developing autism, while a much larger share (35%) say the claim is “definitely false.” Most adults – including majorities across many demographics – express uncertainty, saying the unproven claim is either “probably true” or “probably false.” Belief in this claim is closely tied to partisanship, with most Republicans, including over half of Republican women, saying it is either “probably” or “definitely true.”

• Amidst a series of recent changes to federal vaccine policy, majorities of the public disapprove of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy’s overall job performance (59%) as well as his handling of U.S. vaccine policy (62%). Views of Kennedy are largely partisan, with most Republicans and MAGA supporters approving of his overall job performance and his handling of vaccine policy, while large majorities of Democrats disapprove. Just one-third (35%) of adults say they trust Kennedy to provide reliable vaccine information, including 67% of Republicans, 27% of independents, and 13% of Democrats.
• Public trust in the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has continued to decline, driven by drops in trust among Democrats and independents. Overall, half of the public now say they trust the CDC “a great deal” or “fair amount” to provide reliable information about vaccines – reflecting the lowest level of trust in the agency since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, majorities say they trust vaccine information from the American Medical Association (AMA, 64% of the public) and American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP, 69% of parents), two physicians’ organizations that have been recently removed from federal vaccine workgroups.
• With Florida recently becoming the first state in the U.S. to announce an end to all vaccine mandates, including for school children, most parents (70%) say they are opposed to removing public school vaccine requirements in their state. Three in ten parents (30%) support removing public school vaccine requirements, including about half (48%) of Republican and Republican-leaning parents. More than half of parents (56%) say getting children vaccinated is part of parents’ responsibility to protect the health of others, while just under half (44%) say it is a personal choice. Republican parents (62%) are far more likely than Democratic parents (26%) to say vaccinating children is a personal choice.

Belief in Claim That Tylenol Increases Autism Risk When Taken During Pregnancy

In September the Trump administration issued a warning linking the use of acetaminophen – the active ingredient in Tylenol – during pregnancy to an increased risk of autism in children, with President Trump directly admonishing pregnant women to not take the painkiller in a widely-covered press conference. Past studies have been mixed, with some finding an association between acetaminophen use during pregnancy and autism risk, but none showing that use of acetaminophen causes autism. Following the administration’s announcement, several researchers and medical groups publicly cautioned that a causal link has not been established. Acetaminophen is considered one of the only safe pain relievers to take during pregnancy when used appropriately, and not taking it, particularly for the treatment of fevers, can carry additional risks for the fetus.

KFF’s latest Tracking Poll on Health Information and Trust, fielded just one day after the Trump administration’s press conference, finds that about three-quarters (77%) of adults say they have read or heard that taking Tylenol during pregnancy increases the risk of the child developing autism, including similar majorities across parents, gender, women of reproductive age, and partisanship.

With the vast majority of the public having heard the unproven claim that Tylenol use during pregnancy increases the risk of autism, just 4% of adults say they think this claim is “definitely true” with much larger shares (35%) saying it is “definitely false.” However, in line with prior KFF polling on a variety of health misinformation topics, many adults express uncertainty and fall into the “malleable middle,” saying this unproven claim is either “probably true” (30%) or “probably false” (30%). This includes majorities of women, including women of reproductive age (those under the age of 50), Republicans, independents, and Republican women who all express uncertainty about the validity of this claim.

While few adults across partisanship think that it is “definitely true” that taking Tylenol during pregnancy increases the risk of children developing autism, partisanship does play a major role in public perception of this claim. Democrats (59%) are much more likely than Republicans (12%) to say this claim is “definitely false,” with similar partisan divides occurring among women. Conversely, most Republicans (56%), including most Republican women (54%) say they think it is either definitely true or probably true that taking Tylenol during pregnancy increases the risk of children developing autism.

MAHA Support and Public Approval of HHS Secretary Kennedy

As Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has overseen several major changes to federal health agencies and policies in the past year, including cuts to HHS staffing, replacing members of the CDC committee that makes vaccine recommendations, and changes to federal vaccine recommendations for adults and children. The newly established Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) Commission chaired by Kennedy has vowed to combat childhood disease, with a focus on diet and exercise, processed foods, neurodevelopmental disorders, and so-called “over-medicalization” of children.

KFF’s latest Tracking Poll on Health Information and Trust finds that just over seven months into his tenure overseeing the Department of Health and Human Services, majorities of the public disapprove of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s job performance as HHS leader and his handling of U.S. vaccine policy, with approval largely split down partisan lines. About four in ten (41%) adults say they “strongly” or “somewhat” approve of the way Kennedy is handling his job as Secretary of HHS, compared to a majority (59%) who say they either “somewhat” or “strongly” disapprove of his job performance. Similarly, about four in ten (37%) adults say they approve of Secretary Kennedy’s handling of U.S. vaccine policy compared to six in ten (62%) who express disapproval.

Republicans are far more likely than both independents and Democrats to approve of Kennedy’s handling of his role as HHS Secretary (74% of Republicans v. 35% of independents and 13% of Democrats) and his handling of U.S. vaccine policy (69% of Republicans v. 32% of independents and 12% of Democrats).

Even among supporters of the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement, support for Secretary Kennedy is not universal and seems to be largely partisan.

While majorities of MAHA supporters say they approve of Kennedy’s job performance (69%) and handling of vaccine policy (64%), at least three in ten MAHA supporters say they either “somewhat” or “strongly” disapprove of the way Kennedy is handling his role as HHS Secretary (30%) and U.S. vaccine policy (35%), suggesting that Kennedy has yet to win over a notable share of adults who support the movement he is so closely tied to. This may be explained by partisan divisions within the MAHA movement itself: Few Democratic and Democratic leaning MAHA supporters approve of Kennedy’s job performance (27%) or handling of vaccine policy (22%), while large majorities of Republican and Republican leaning MAHA supporters express approval of Kennedy’s handling of his job (85%) and vaccine policy (79%).

Support of Kennedy is also closely tied to MAGA identity among Republicans. Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who support the MAGA movement (74% of all Republicans/Republican-leaning independents) are much more likely than non-MAGA Republicans to say they approve of the way Kennedy is handling his job as HHS Secretary (83% v. 48%) and U.S. vaccine policy (76% v. 46%).

Trusted Sources of Vaccine Information

The Trump administration has recently enacted several changes to federal vaccine guidance, including limiting eligibility for updated COVID-19 vaccines to older adults and those with underlying conditions, taking steps to revise the pediatric vaccine schedule, and removing physician organizations, including the American Medical Association and American Academy of Pediatrics, from federal vaccine recommendation workgroups. Amid these changes, some physician organizations and health care providers have issued their own expanded guidelines for vaccines, including for the updated fall 2025 COVID-19 boosters. As the public is faced with increasingly mixed messaging on vaccine recommendations from a variety of authorities, groups and individuals, trust in different sources of vaccine information may play a key role in adults’ decisions.

Doctors remain the most trusted source of vaccine information among the public, with eight in ten (83%) adults saying they trust their doctor or health care provider “a great deal” or “fair amount” to provide reliable information about vaccines. Majorities of the public also express trust in the American Medical Association, or AMA (64%), to provide reliable vaccine information, with a similar share of parents expressing trust in the American Academy of Pediatrics, or AAP (69%). Fewer adults express trust in health agencies and officials, with half of the public saying they trust the CDC (50%), their state government officials (45%), or Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (35%) for reliable vaccine information. Notably, fewer than half of adults say they trust any of these sources “a great deal.”

In line with recent KFF polling, trust in sources of vaccine information is largely partisan, with Republicans more likely than Democrats to trust Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (67% v. 13%), and Democrats more likely to trust the CDC (64% v. 39%), their state government officials (57% v. 37%), the AMA (83% v. 47%), and the American Academy of Pediatrics (89% v. 54%, among parents). Majorities across partisans continue to express trust in their doctor for vaccine information, although Democrats are more likely than Republicans to do so (95% v. 75%). 

Continuing a trend observed in prior KFF polling, KFF’s latest Tracking Poll on Health Information and Trust finds that public trust in the CDC has now dropped to its lowest level since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Half of the public now say they have “a great deal” or “fair amount” of trust in the CDC to provide reliable information about vaccines (down from 63% overall in September 2023). Trust among both Democrats and independents has dropped by double digits since September 2023 (from 61% to 47% for independents and from 88% to 64% among Democrats).

The share of Republicans saying they trust the CDC for vaccine information appeared to rebound somewhat in April 2025 following Secretary Kennedy’s appointment, but currently stands at 39%, similar to the 40% in September 2023.

Public Weighs Support for States’ Roles in Vaccines

With a growing red-blue divide on state vaccine policies, public opinion on state’s roles is similarly polarized, with KFF’s latest survey finding that trust in state officials varies depending on whether partisans live in states governed by their own party. Overall, Democrats are more likely than Republicans to express a “great deal” or “fair amount” of trust in their state government officials to provide reliable vaccine information (57% v. 37%). Yet, this differs depending on whether people share the same political party as their state leadership. Democrats living in states with Democratic governors are more likely than Democrats in Republican-governed states to express trust in their state officials for vaccine information (66% v. 42%). On the other hand, about half (47%) of Republicans living in states with Republican governors trust their state officials for vaccine information compared to just a quarter (27%) of Republicans living in states with Democratic governors. This complex interplay of partisanship amid red-blue divides in state vaccine policies has the potential to further add to the public’s confusion when it comes to vaccine recommendations.

Amid recent changes to federal vaccine guidance, several states – largely governed by Democrats – have taken action to expand access to certain vaccines, including policies to widen COVID-19 vaccine eligibility. Overall, the public is divided on these policies. About half (48%) of the public say they support states recommending vaccines for their residents that are not recommended by federal health agencies with another half (51%) opposed. A majority (64%) of Democrats support these state policies compared to about half (52%) of independents and far fewer (28%) Republicans.

Support for School Vaccine Requirements and Parents’ Responsibility to Vaccinate

In early September, Florida became the first U.S. state to announce its intention to end to all vaccine mandates, including for school children. All 50 states and D.C. currently require school children to receive vaccines for certain diseases, such as measles, mumps, and rubella and polio, making Florida the first state to move toward removing such requirements. Nearly all states, including Florida, already allow parents to opt out of vaccinating their children due to non-medical reasons, such as religious beliefs.

Overall, seven in ten parents say they oppose their state removing public school vaccine requirements, while three in ten say they support removing these requirements. Among Republican and Republican-leaning independent parents, half (48%) say they support removing public school vaccine requirements in their state compared to far fewer Democratic and Democratic-leaning parents (13%).

KFF’s recent Survey of Parents with the Washington Post similarly found that while most parents across partisans, including those who live in Florida, support public school vaccine requirements for measles and polio, Republican parents and MAGA-Republican parents are more likely to oppose these requirements.

Parents are largely divided on the question of whether vaccinating children is a responsibility to protect others or a parent’s personal choice, with Republican parents much more likely to view childhood vaccination as a personal choice. When asked which comes closer to their view, just over half (56%) of parents say getting children vaccinated is “part of parent’s responsibility to protect the health of others,” while just under half (44%) say it is a “parent’s personal choice.” A majority of Republican and Republican-leaning parents (62%) say that getting children vaccinated is a parent’s personal choice rather than a responsibility to others compared to a quarter (26%) of Democratic and Democratic leaning parents who say the same.

This KFF Health Tracking Poll/KFF Tracking Poll on Health Information and Trust was designed and analyzed by public opinion researchers at KFF. The survey was conducted September 23-29, 2025, online and by telephone among a nationally representative sample of 1,334 U.S. adults in English (n=1,255) and in Spanish (n=79). The sample includes 1,026 adults (n=64 in Spanish) reached through the SSRS Opinion Panel either online (n=1,004) or over the phone (n=22). The SSRS Opinion Panel is a nationally representative probability-based panel where panel members are recruited randomly in one of two ways: (a) Through invitations mailed to respondents randomly sampled from an Address-Based Sample (ABS) provided by Marketing Systems Groups (MSG) through the U.S. Postal Service’s Computerized Delivery Sequence (CDS); (b) from a dual-frame random digit dial (RDD) sample provided by MSG. For the online panel component, invitations were sent to panel members by email followed by up to three reminder emails. 

Another 308 (n=15 in Spanish) adults were reached through random digit dial telephone sample of prepaid cell phone numbers obtained through MSG. Phone numbers used for the prepaid cell phone component were randomly generated from a cell phone sampling frame with disproportionate stratification aimed at reaching Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black respondents. Stratification was based on incidence of the race/ethnicity groups within each frame. Among this prepaid cell phone component, 141 were interviewed by phone and 167 were invited to the web survey via short message service (SMS). 

Respondents in the prepaid cell phone sample who were interviewed by phone received a $15 incentive via a check received by mail. Respondents in the prepaid cell phone sample reached via SMS received a $10 electronic gift card incentive. SSRS Opinion Panel respondents received a $5 electronic gift card incentive (some harder-to-reach groups received a $10 electronic gift card). In order to ensure data quality, cases were removed if they failed two or more quality checks: (1) attention check questions in the online version of the questionnaire, (2) had over 30% item non-response, or (3) had a length less than one quarter of the mean length by mode. Based on this criterion, no cases were removed.

The combined cell phone and panel samples were weighted to match the sample’s demographics to the national U.S. adult population using data from the Census Bureau’s 2024 Current Population Survey (CPS), September 2023 Volunteering and Civic Life Supplement data from the CPS, and the 2025 KFF Benchmarking Survey with ABS and prepaid cell phone samples. The demographic variables included in weighting for the general population sample are gender, age, education, race/ethnicity, region, civic engagement, frequency of internet use, and political party identification. The weights account for differences in the probability of selection for each sample type (prepaid cell phone and panel). This includes adjustment for the sample design and geographic stratification of the cell phone sample, within household probability of selection, and the design of the panel-recruitment procedure.

The margin of sampling error including the design effect for the full sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Numbers of respondents and margins of sampling error for key subgroups are shown in the table below. For results based on other subgroups, the margin of sampling error may be higher. Sample sizes and margins of sampling error for other subgroups are available on request. Sampling error is only one of many potential sources of error and there may be other unmeasured error in this or any other public opinion poll. KFF public opinion and survey research is a charter member of the Transparency Initiative of the American Association for Public Opinion Research.