KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: MAGA Republicans’ Relationship With COVID-19 Vaccines

The KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor has been tracking intentions to get a COVID-19 vaccine since December 2020, when the initial vaccine first became available. Throughout the past three years, partisanship has continued to play an outsized role in predicting both intentions to get a COVID-19 vaccine as well as other pandemic-related attitudes and behaviors. With the latest COVID-19 vaccine rollout, Republicans are once again among the groups least likely to report having gotten the updated shot. This data note examines how vaccine attitudes and uptake differ between Republicans who sit on different sides of a particular ideological divide within Republican Party – support of the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement.

The MAGA movement has attracted many Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, with six in ten (58%) saying they support the MAGA movement, representing about one quarter (23%) of all U.S. adults, according to the latest KFF Tracking Poll.

Generally, MAGA supporting Republicans tend to be older and have lower levels of education than Republicans who do not support the MAGA movement, with a larger share of MAGA Republicans being ages 50 and older (58% vs. 41%) and having less than a college degree (81% vs. 53%). MAGA supporting Republicans and Republicans who do not support the MAGA movement look similar across gender, race, and ethnicity.

MAGA Supporters Are Among Groups Least Likely To Get Updated COVID-19 Vaccine

Majorities of adults across partisan groups have reported receiving at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine that has been on the market since December 2020, though larger shares of Republicans compared to Democrats and independents remained resistant, with at least a quarter saying they would “definitely not” get a COVID-19 vaccine throughout the three years of KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor surveys.

The November COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor finds that among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, similar majorities of both those who support the MAGA movement (60%) and those who do not support the MAGA movement (70%) say they have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine (10 percentage points is within the margin of sampling error).

However, Republicans under 50 years old who support the MAGA movement are particularly resistant to getting a COVID-19 vaccine, with about four in ten saying they have received at least one dose, 20 percentage points lower than their non-MAGA supporting counterparts (39% vs. 59%). Given the increased vulnerability of adults ages 50 and older to the virus, and consistent with our findings that across party lines, older people have been more likely to get the COVID-19 vaccine, large majorities of older MAGA and non-MAGA supporting Republicans ages 50 and older report having gotten a COVID-19 dose.

The newest COVID-19 vaccine recently became available in September of this year, with somewhat muted uptake compared to initial vaccine uptake. As of early November, two in ten adults say they have gotten the updated vaccine including one in three Democrats (32%), 16% of independents, and 12% of Republicans. Among Republicans, alignment with the MAGA movement is a strong predictor of vaccine intentions with supporters of the MAGA movement the fiercest in their opposition to the latest shot.

Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, about one in four (26%) of those who do not support MAGA say they have gotten or “probably” or “definitely” will get the latest updated COVID-19 vaccine, compared to about one in six (17%) of those who support MAGA saying they have gotten or plan to get the vaccine.

Most Republicans, regardless of MAGA support, say they will not get the latest updated COVID-19 vaccine with nearly two-thirds (63%) of MAGA Republicans saying they will “definitely not” get the newest vaccine, a slightly larger share than the half of their non-MAGA counterparts (52%) who say the same. The difference between Republican MAGA supporters and non-supporters in the share who have gotten the updated COVID-19 vaccine or say they will persists even after controlling for other demographics of age, gender, community type (such as urban, rural, or suburban communities), education, and household income.

In addition to being among the least likely to be vaccinated against COVID-19 at all, younger MAGA Republicans are among the most adamant that they will “definitely not” get the updated vaccine. Seven in ten (70%) MAGA supporting Republicans under age 50 say they will “definitely not” get the updated shot, compared to 54% of Republicans and leaners in this age group who do not support the MAGA movement (and 34% of the public overall).

MAGA Republicans Are Also Less Likely To Get The Flu Shot Or View Other Vaccines As Safe

As of September, almost six in ten (57%) non-MAGA identifying Republicans said they had already gotten or definitely will get the flu shot this season, compared to 43% of MAGA supporting Republicans. Interestingly, Republicans who do not identify with the MAGA movement are not significantly more likely than MAGA Republicans to say they normally get an annual flu shot. This could suggest that the MAGA impact on vaccine uptake could be a relatively new phenomenon that public health officials may be facing in the years to come.

The differences between Republican MAGA supporters and non-supporters are not only evident in their uptake of vaccines, but also in their assessment of the safety of different types of vaccines. Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who support the MAGA movement are less likely than their non-MAGA counterparts to express confidence in the safety of COVID-19 vaccines (29% vs. 44%), respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, vaccines (41% vs. 61%), and flu vaccines (53% vs. 74%).

This KFF Health Tracking Poll/COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor was designed and analyzed by public opinion researchers at KFF. The survey was conducted October 31- November 7, 2023, online and by telephone among a nationally representative sample of 1,301 U.S. adults in English (1,222) and in Spanish (79). The sample includes 1,016 adults (n=52 in Spanish) reached through the SSRS Opinion Panel either online (n=991) or over the phone (n=25). The SSRS Opinion Panel is a nationally representative probability-based panel where panel members are recruited randomly in one of two ways: (a) Through invitations mailed to respondents randomly sampled from an Address-Based Sample (ABS) provided by Marketing Systems Groups (MSG) through the U.S. Postal Service’s Computerized Delivery Sequence (CDS); (b) from a dual-frame random digit dial (RDD) sample provided by MSG. For the online panel component, invitations were sent to panel members by email followed by up to three reminder emails.

Another 285 (n=27 in Spanish) interviews were conducted from a random digit dial telephone sample of prepaid cell phone numbers obtained through MSG. Phone numbers used for the prepaid cell phone component were randomly generated from a cell phone sampling frame with disproportionate stratification aimed at reaching Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black respondents. Stratification was based on incidence of the race/ethnicity groups within each frame.

Respondents in the phone samples received a $15 incentive via a check received by mail, and web respondents received a $5 electronic gift card incentive (some harder-to-reach groups received a $10 electronic gift card). In order to ensure data quality, cases were removed if they failed attention check questions in the online version of the questionnaire, or if they had over 30% item non-response, or had a length less than one quarter of the mean length by mode.  Based on this criterion, one case was removed.

The combined cell phone and panel samples were weighted to match the sample’s demographics to the national U.S. adult population based on parameters derived from the Census Bureau’s 2022 Current Population Survey (CPS), 2021 Volunteering and Civic Life Supplement data from the CPS, and the 2023 KFF Benchmarking survey with ABS and prepaid cell phone samples. The demographic variables included in weighting for the general population sample are sex, age, education, race/ethnicity, region, education, civic engagement, internet use, and political party identification by race/ethnicity.  The sample of registered voters was weighted separately to match the U.S. registered voter population using the parameters above plus recalled vote in the 2020 presidential election by county quintiles grouped by Trump vote share. Both weights take into account differences in the probability of selection for each sample type (prepaid cell phone and panel). This includes adjustment for the sample design and geographic stratification of the cell phone sample, within household probability of selection, and the design of the panel-recruitment procedure.

The margin of sampling error including the design effect for the full sample and registered voters is plus or minus 4 percentage points. Numbers of respondents and margins of sampling error for key subgroups are shown in the table below. For results based on other subgroups, the margin of sampling error may be higher. Sample sizes and margins of sampling error for other subgroups are available by request. Sampling error is only one of many potential sources of error and there may be other unmeasured error in this or any other public opinion poll. KFF public opinion and survey research is a charter member of the Transparency Initiative of the American Association for Public Opinion Research.