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Estimated Average Repayment is $794. Estimated Average Refund is $773. Half of U.S. households eligible for a 2014 tax subsidy under the Affordable Care Act would owe a repayment to the government, while 45 percent would receive a refund, according to estimates from a new analysis by the Kaiser Family Foundation.
This analysis estimates the range of repayment or refund amounts of the advanced premium tax credits issued to enrollees who experience income volatility between the time of enrollment and tax credit reconciliation. Using a simulation model among all households eligible for advance payments of the premium tax credits under the Affordable Care Act, it estimates that half would owe a repayment while 45 percent would be issued a refund of some or all of premium subsidies received.
The Kaiser Family Foundation’s interactive map now allows users to compare what consumers in each county would pay in health insurance premiums after tax credits in 2020 under the Affordable Care Act vs. the House GOP replacement plan, the American Health Care Act.
Compare county-level estimates of premiums and premium tax credits consumers would receive under the Affordable Care Act in 2020 with what they’d receive under the American Health Care Act legislation released March 6 by Republican leaders in Congress.
A new analysis from the Kaiser Family Foundation estimates that the average health insurance premium tax credit received by consumers in 2020 would be at least 36 percent lower under replacement proposals being discussed by Republicans in Congress than under the Affordable Care Act.
The Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, and leading replacement proposals rely on refundable tax credits to help individual market enrollees pay for premiums, although the credit amounts are set quite differently. This analysis compares estimates of an average 2020 tax credit amount under the ACA with averages under the House Republicans' American Health Care Act, introduced March 6, 2017.
This analysis estimates that Americans currently buying insurance on the individual market would receive $2700 in subsidies (as tax credits) in 2014 under Obamacare. Tax credits are available for qualifying people buying insurance through the new health care marketplaces, or exchanges.
As fall approaches, we can expect to hear more about how employers are adapting their health plans for 2016 open enrollments. One topic likely to garner a good deal of attention is how the Affordable Care Act’s high cost plan tax (HCPT), sometimes called the “Cadillac plan” tax or "Cadillac tax," is affecting employer decisions about their health benefits. The tax takes effect in 2018.
The potential of facing an HCPT assessment as soon as 2018 is encouraging employers to assess their current health benefits and consider cost reductions to avoid triggering the tax. Some employers announced that they made changes in 2014 in anticipation of the HCPT, and more are likely to do so as the implementation date gets closer.
A recent draft regulation issued by the Treasury Department describes who is eligible for premium tax credits to help them afford coverage offered through health insurance exchanges beginning in 2014.
There seems to be growing interest in the question of how many employers will keep offering coverage to their full-time employees once the Affordable Care Act (ACA) is fully implemented in 2014, or instead will choose to stop offering coverage and pay a penalty.
© 2025 KFF
