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This Health System Tracker analysis examines the tradeoffs ACA Marketplace enrollees must consider as they decide whether to keep their current plan or switch to a new one, following the expiration of the ACA’s enhanced premium tax credits at the end of 2025.
Data currently being released represent Open Enrollment ACA Marketplace plan selections, or how many people have signed up for or been automatically renewed into 2026 coverage. These data do not necessarily translate to enrollments. That is because people who have selected a plan or been automatically renewed may not ultimately choose to pay for their coverage, thus “effectuating” their enrollment.
After failed Senate votes late last year and no subsequent bipartisan agreement, the enhanced premium tax credits expired as of January 1. Some states, particularly those operating State-Based Marketplaces (SBMs), have been preparing for this possibility for months and are moving to blunt the impact on consumers by implementing their own state-funded subsidies and implementing other programs aimed at stabilizing the cost of unsubsidized premiums.
In his latest JAMA Forum column, KFF’s Larry Levitt explores how unaffordable health care is in the U.S. in the context of the debate over extending enhanced Affordable Care Act premium tax credits and an upcoming election where affordability will likely be front and center.
In his first column for the new year, KFF CEO Dr. Drew Altman analyzes President Trump’s “make a deal” approach to health care. He explains that while the president doesn’t have a health reform plan, or even “concepts of a plan,” or a replacement for the ACA, he does have a distinctive set of tactics that features one-off deals with the health care industry that are more like “health policy by transaction.” He writes that the deals “even do some good,” but “don’t change the long-term incentives of the health care companies that participate in the deals,” and a big question is “whether they have staying power.”
Policy changes, anticipated increases in premium costs for enrollees, and new standards for health savings accounts may encourage consumers to seek out plans with lower premiums but higher deductibles. This issue brief explores the features of bronze and catastrophic plans, coverage and costs, and the complicated choices consumers face.
The expiration of enhanced ACA tax credits is reshaping coverage decisions for Marketplace enrollees, and in a recent KFF survey, Marketplace enrollees told us how rising premiums could affect insurance choices, affordability, and political attitudes.
While the Affordable Care Act’s enhanced premium tax credits expired at the end of 2025, there is no absolute drop-dead date for extending them. An extension could happen even after the deadline to sign up for coverage and be made retroactive to January 1. Open enrollment could also be extended to allow people time to change their plans or allow new people to sign up. ACA enrollees would welcome premium relief whenever it comes.
Commercial health insurance markets remain highly concentrated across coverage types. However, the individual market, which consists mostly of the ACA Marketplaces, has attracted more insurers and witnessed greater insurer competition across a variety of measures since the implementation of the enhanced premium tax credits in 2021, according to a new Healthy System Tracker analysis.
In a new column, President and CEO Dr. Drew Altman forecasts eight things to look for in health policy in 2026. “First and foremost,” he writes, “is the role health care affordability will play in the midterms.” And, he notes: “The average cost of a family policy for employers could approach $30,000 and cost sharing and deductibles will rise again after plateauing for several years.”
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