Medicaid Enrollment & Spending Growth: FY 2024 & 2025
This brief analyzes Medicaid enrollment and spending trends for FY 2024 and FY 2025, based on data provided by state Medicaid directors as part of the 24th annual survey of Medicaid directors.
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This brief analyzes Medicaid enrollment and spending trends for FY 2024 and FY 2025, based on data provided by state Medicaid directors as part of the 24th annual survey of Medicaid directors.
Enrollment in Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace health plans reached a record 24.3 million people, more than double the total in 2020, with most of the growth occurring in states won by President Trump in the 2024 election, a new KFF analysis finds.
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Some states are prioritizing Medicaid renewals for enrollees flagged as likely to be ineligible. Early data from Arizona, Idaho, and Pennsylvania show disenrollment rates for flagged enrollees are higher than for other enrollees. This analysis considers why different state approaches to renewals may explain some – but not all – variation in disenrollment rates across the U.S.
Commercial health insurance markets remain highly concentrated across coverage types. However, the individual market, which consists mostly of the ACA Marketplaces, has attracted more insurers and witnessed greater insurer competition across a variety of measures since the implementation of the enhanced premium tax credits in 2021, according to a new Healthy System Tracker analysis.
A per capita cap in Medicaid may be a solution in search of a problem. However, if a cap substantially reduced federal Medicaid spending over time, it would put states at financial risk and force cuts to services and rates paid to physicians, hospitals, and nursing homes.
In 2024, ACA enrollment (including Marketplace, Medicaid expansion, and BHP) reached 44 million, or 16.4% of the nonelderly U.S. population. From 2020-2024, enrollment in ACA coverage increased by over 60%.
More than 10 million people have been disenrolled from Medicaid, based on data available from 50 states and the District of Columbia as of November 1, 2023. Disenrollment rates range from 65% in Texas to 10% in Illinois, according to KFF’s ongoing tracking.
Over six months after the expiration of pandemic-era enrollment protections, at least 27 million Medicaid enrollees—or roughly one-in-three enrollees across the country—have completed their state’s eligibility renewal process for the program. Over 18 million people have had their coverage renewed and over 10 million have been disenrolled, as of November 8, 2023.
The ACA Marketplace Open Enrollment season begins November 1, and with it comes looming changes to the enhanced premium tax credits, increases in out-of-pocket premium payments, new Marketplace eligibility rules, and more. Read our analysis of what these and other changes could mean for new and returning enrollees.
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