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Did the Affordable Care Act Make Health Care More Affordable?

The expiration of the ACA’s enhanced premium tax credits at the start of 2026, combined with rising insurer premiums, put a spotlight on health care affordability that extends beyond Marketplace enrollees. KFF’s Cynthia Cox examines the ACA’s record and the broader underlying question it raises: what’s a fair price for Americans people to pay for health care?

The ACA MarketplaceS

In Preliminary Rate Filings, ACA Marketplace Insurers Largely Propose Double-Digit Premium Increase For 2027, Following a Steep Climb This Year 

ACA Marketplace insurers are proposing a median premium increase of 14% for 2027— indicating a likely second consecutive year of double-digit increases, according to a new analysis of preliminary rate filings in 16 states and DC. If these increases hold, typical premiums for insurers participating in the ACA Marketplaces would jump by more than one-third between 2025 and 2027.

The Average Marketplace Deductible Grew by About $1,000 Per Person in 2026, With More Enrollees Shifting to Higher-Deductible Plans as Enhanced Tax Credits Expired

The average Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace deductible experienced the steepest increase in history—growing by 37% or over $1,000, from $2,759 in 2025 to $3,786 in 2026 as enhanced premium tax credits expired, according to a new KFF analysis. After the enhanced tax credits ended, many Marketplace shoppers shifted toward lower-premium, higher-deductible plans.

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  • 10 Million Have Been Disenrolled from Medicaid; Some Could Find Themselves Eligible for Marketplace Subsidies

    News Release

    More than 10 million people have been disenrolled from Medicaid, based on data available from 50 states and the District of Columbia as of November 1, 2023. Disenrollment rates range from 65% in Texas to 10% in Illinois, according to KFF’s ongoing tracking. Differences in state renewal policies and system capacity likely explain some of this variation. Some disenrolled individuals are regaining Medicaid coverage. As a result, overall declines in Medicaid enrollment will be less…

  • Preventive Services Use Among People with Private Insurance Coverage

    Issue Brief

    This analysis of claims data estimates that six in ten people with private health insurance - or about 100 million people - used at least one preventive service covered without any out-of-pocket costs through a provision of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in a typical year prior to the COVID-19 pandemic (2018). The provision that requires most private health plans to cover many preventive services without any cost-sharing for their enrollees is being challenged in…

  • 2026 Medical Loss Ratio Rebates

    Issue Brief

    Insurers estimate they will pay $759.2 million in Medical Loss Ratio (MLR) rebates in 2026 to select individuals and employers that purchase their health coverage, according to a KFF analysis of preliminary data reported to state regulators. The estimated rebate for 2024 is less than rebates issued in most prior years.

  • ACA Marketplace Enrollment Is Down By 3 Million After Big Jump in Premium Payments

    Quick Insights

    Enrollment dropped 13% following the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits at the beginning of this year. Enrollment fell from a high of 22.1 million people in 2025 to 19.2 million people in February 2026. While the Trump administration attributes this drop in enrollment to their attempts to address fraud, this coverage loss happened at the same time millions of people faced steep increases in their premium payments – often in the double or even…

  • KFF Health Tracking Poll: Public Views on Fraud in Government Health Programs

    Poll Finding

    As the 2026 midterms approach, health care costs remain voters' top health priority, but fraud in government health programs, including Medicaid and Medicare, is resonating with Republican voters, 55% of whom say it's extremely important for candidates to address. Most voters say there is at least “some” fraud in government health programs, but larger shares say there is fraud in the tax system, defense, and foreign aid, while the smallest share sees fraud in the…

  • What We Know So Far About 2026 ACA Marketplace Enrollment, Premiums, and Deductibles

    Issue Brief

    This analysis examines early indicators of how the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits has affected effectuated enrollment levels (i.e., enrollment among people who have paid their premiums), plan selections, and out-of-pocket costs in 2026, drawing on plan selection and effectuated enrollment data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) and state-based Marketplace (SBM) Open Enrollment reports, as well as KFF survey data and individual market enrollment estimates from Wakely Consulting Group.

  • Poll: Costs Are the Top Health Care Issue for Voters in the Midterms, But Fraud Tops Republicans’ List As Trump Administration Pushes Crackdown

    News Release

    Health care costs top the list of voters’ health care priorities for the midterm elections, though more than half of Republican voters say it is extremely important for candidates to discuss the issue of fraud in government health programs, according to a new KFF Health Tracking Poll. Most voters say there is at least “some” fraud in government health programs, but larger shares of voters see fraud in the tax system, defense, and foreign aid…

  • KFF Examines Key Considerations for the Implementation of Insurance Coverage for Over-the-Counter Contraceptives

    News Release

    With federal regulators seeking public input on the potential benefits, costs, and implementation considerations of requiring private health insurance plans to cover over-the-counter preventive products without a prescription, a new KFF post explores the issues relevant to covering over-the-counter contraceptives. These contraceptives include Opill, the first daily oral contraceptive pill to receive FDA approval for over-the-counter availability. The analysis draws on the lessons learned from KFF staff interviews with more than 80 key players nationally…

  • What is the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services’ New AHEAD Model?

    Issue Brief

    In September 2023, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) announced a new opportunity for states to leverage federal funding on health care: the Advancing All-Payer Health Equity Approaches and Development (AHEAD) model. With this model, CMS – under the auspices of the CMS Innovation Center, also known as CMMI -- aims to reduce the rate of growth in health care spending, improve people's health, and reduce disparities in health outcomes. This issue brief…

  • What Trump’s 2024 Victory Means for Medicaid

    Quick Insights

    While Medicaid did not receive a lot of attention during the campaign, if cuts to Social Security and Medicare are largely off the table, Medicaid is the likely source of funding to extend expiring tax cuts.