Income and Assets of Medicare Beneficiaries, 2016-2035

Asset and income projections are based on the Urban Institute’s Dynamic Simulation of Income Model (DYNASIM3).  DYNASIM3 is a dynamic microsimulation model that projects the population and analyzes the long-run distributional consequences of retirement and aging issues. The model starts with a representative sample of individuals and families and ages the data year by year, simulating demographic and economic events including all key components of retirement income. The model integrates many important trends and differences among groups in life course processes, including birth, death, schooling, leaving home, first marriage, remarriage, divorce, disability, work, retirement, and earnings. Projections of fertility, disability, mortality, net immigration, employment, average earnings, and price changes are aligned to be consistent with 2014 OASDI Trustees intermediate cost projections. Projections of assets are aligned to the Survey of Consumer Finance (SCF). For a fuller description of DYNASIM3, see Karen E. Smith. February 2012. “Projection Methods Used in the Dynamic Simulation of Income Model (DYNASIM3),” Program on Retirement Policy, The Urban Institute.


Gretchen Jacobson, Shannon Griffin, and Tricia Neuman are with the Kaiser Family Foundation, and Karen Smith is with the Urban Institute.

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