Blue Wall Voices Project
The Role of Swing Voters in the Blue Wall
In the wake of the 2016 election there was some speculation that voters who were planning to support President Trump were reluctant to express this to interviewers during public opinion polls. This “shy Trump voter” hypothesis was not found to be a meaningful contribution to the polling errors in 2016. By examining whether voters were less willing to express support for President Trump during a live interview compared to an online response, we found no evidence of any voters, regardless of party identification, being less willing to express support for President Trump during live interview surveys. It is also important to note that while we did not find evidence of shy Trump voters, this may be a result of respondents being able to self-select into their various modes.
Republican Voters and President Trump
The Blue Wall Voices Project began on September 23rd, 2019, one day before House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced a formal impeachment inquiry into Trump on September 24th as a result of President Trump’s phone call with the Ukrainian President. As the field period continued into October, we did see an increase in the share of voters who mentioned President Trump’s commitment to constitution in their responses to this question.