CDC Report Estimates Up To 1.4M Ebola Cases By January 2015 If Additional Containment Not Achieved

News outlets discuss a new report from the CDC, estimating the number of Ebola cases could surpass one million during the beginning of 2015 if the scale-up in the response is not adequate.

CNN: CDC: Ebola cases could reach at least 550,000 by January
“The number of Ebola cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone could rise to between 550,000 and 1.4 million by January if there are no ‘additional interventions or changes in community behavior,’ the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a report Tuesday. The estimate was derived from a new forecasting tool developed by the CDC…” (Smith-Spark et al., 9/23).

New York Times: Ebola Cases Could Reach 1.4 Million in 4 Months, CDC Estimates
“…In the worst-case scenario, Liberia and Sierra Leone could have 21,000 cases of Ebola by Sept. 30 and 1.4 million cases by Jan. 20 if the disease keeps spreading without effective methods to contain it. These figures take into account the fact that many cases go undetected, and estimate that there are actually 2.5 times as many as reported. The report does not include figures for Guinea because case counts there have gone up and down in ways that cannot be reliably modeled…” (Grady, 9/23).

Washington Post: CDC: Ebola could infect 1.4 million in West Africa by end of January if trends continue
“…[The report’s authors] also said their assumptions may not fully account for sick patients who are turned away from treatment centers that don’t have any spare beds. That suggests the number of underreported cases could be even higher. CDC Director Tom Frieden cautioned that the estimates in the report don’t take into account actions taken or planned since August by the United States and the international community…” (Sun, 9/23).

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