How Repeal of the Individual Mandate and Expansion of Loosely Regulated Plans are Affecting 2019 Premiums
The CBO expects this amount to increase to 20% by 2021. We conservatively assume the 2019 impact remains at 10%.
How these premium increases (due to CSR payments halting, individual mandate penalty dropping to zero, and short-term plans expanding) interact with each other on each insurers’ calculations. We conservatively assume they are additive (i.e., 6% plus 10%, resulting in 16%) rather than multiplicative (i.e., 6% increase on top of a 10% increase, which would be 16.6% overall).
Note that this dollar figure is an approximation as we are applying a simple average (16%) load to weighted average healthcare.gov premiums, and this load is based on information that is publicly available information in all states.