It depends. If your premium contribution with the wellness penalty would be more than 9.61% of your income in 2022, then your employer plan would be considered unaffordable and you would be eligible to apply for premium tax credits in the Marketplace. This test applies whether you are actually penalized or not, and in advance of the penalty being applied (for example, if your employer gives you time to try to meet the health standard that triggers a penalty or reward).
Similarly, if your employer wellness program applies the penalty to the plan cost sharing (for example, people who don’t participate or who can’t meet the health targets have a higher deductible than would otherwise be the case), and if penalty is high enough to reduce the value of your plan below the “minimum value,” then you would be eligible to apply for premium tax credits in the Marketplace. Again, this test applies whether you are actually penalized or not and in advance of the penalty ever being applied.