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Experts Attempt To Trace, Predict Ebola Cases In West Africa

News outlets report on epidemiological efforts to trace and predict Ebola cases.

Reuters: Ebola map shows people in more African regions risk infection from animals
“Scientists have created a new map of places most at risk of an Ebola outbreak and say regions likely to be home to animals harboring the virus are more widespread than previously feared, particularly in West Africa…” (Kelland, 9/8).

ScienceInsider: How deadly is Ebola? Statistical challenges may be inflating survival rate
“…The apparent low proportion of [Ebola] deaths probably depends more on the way health officials are calculating the number than on the deadliness of the virus — or the quality of care patients are receiving. Indeed, the dramatic increase in cases in recent weeks is one of the main reasons the reported death rate appears to be artificially low…” (Vogel, 9/8).

Washington Post: 20,000 cases or 100,000? How researchers predict Ebola’s spread.
“…Alessandro Vespignani has looked at the outbreak and studied the response on the ground. The Northeastern University physicist has worked on a model to estimate the growth of the disease, and by the end of the month, he says, the epidemic could get much worse — as in, ‘thousands and thousands of cases’ worse. Vespignani and his colleagues project between 6,000 and 10,000 Ebola cases by late September…” (Larimer, 9/8).

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