Federal Medicaid spending is estimated to grow by $11.3 billion between 2003 and 2004. Higher spending on the disabled is the largest source of estimated growth, accounting for 56% of the 2003 to 2004 increase. The elderly account for 26% of the increase, and adults and children together comprise less than 20% of the estimated spending increase.

Much of the estimated increase of $11.3 billion is related to increased spending on services rather than increased enrollment. Sixty-two percent of the estimated increase is services-related, while 38% is enrollment-related.

Source: Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured analysis of the Congressional Budget Office Medicaid baseline, March 2004.