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Trends and Indicators in the Changing Health Care Marketplace
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Exhibit 1.10: Per Enrollee Growth in Medicare Spending and Private Health Insurance Premiums (for Common Benefits), 1969-2003
Comparing common benefits, changes in Medicare spending in the last three decades has largely tracked the growth rate in private health insurance premiums. Typically, Medicare increases have been lower than those of private health insurance, except during the mid-1970s, the early 1980s, and mid-1990s. Trends in Medicare spending are affected by legislative changes such as the Balanced Budget Act of 1997, which contributed to the drop-off in Medicare spending growth in 1998 and 1999, and the Balanced Budget Refinement Act of 1999 and the Medicare, Medicaid, and SCHIP Benefits Improvement and Protection Act of 2000, which contributed to increases.
 
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Medicare SpendingPrivate Health Insurance Premiums
19707.9%15.5%
19719.4%11.0%
19728.2%10.9%
19733.9%9.5%
197421.1%16.2%
197518.6%14.7%
197616.7%20.6%
197714.4%15.8%
197813.0%10.9%
197913.5%16.7%
198018.1%15.5%
198117.6%15.0%
198215.2%12.9%
198311.7%8.6%
19849.2%8.2%
19856.1%10.2%
19865.1%4.9%
19876.1%10.8%
19884.5%14.7%
19899.4%12.6%
19907.1%13.0%
19916.7%10.5%
19928.9%7.8%
19935.4%6.1%
19948.1%2.0%
19956.7%3.0%
19967.1%1.5%
19973.8%4.0%
19980.2%4.4%
19992.5%4.3%
20003.6%6.4%
20018.6%9.7%
20025.7%9.5%
20035.1%9.4%
20046.1%9.0%

 

Average Annual Growth Rates by Period
Medicare SpendingPrivate Health Insurance Premiums
1970-20048.9%9.9%
1970-199410.6%11.6%
1994-19975.9%2.9%
1997-20002.1%5.0%
2000-20046.4%9.4%
1994-20044.9%6.1%

Notes: Per enrollee includes primary policy-holder plus dependents. Common benefits include hospital services, physician and clinical services, other professional services, and durable medical products; they exclude, for example, prescription drugs, home health care, non-durable medical products, and nursing home care. With the 2004 estimates, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) incorporated new concepts, methods, and data sources in the National Health Expenditure Accounts and revised the entire time series back to 1960. According to CMS, the most important revisions were the introduction of estimates of investment in medical equipment and software, expanded estimates of investment in medical-sector structures, and the use of updated data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2002 Economic Census and other sources. Overall, these changes raised the estimates of health spending 3-4% for nearly all years prior to 2004.

Source: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary, National Health Statistics Group, Table 13 at http://www.cms.hhs.gov/NationalHealthExpendData/downloads/tables.pdf.

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Trends and Indicators in the Changing Health Care Marketplace
Information provided by the Health Care Marketplace Project.

Publication Number: 7031
Information Updated: 02/08/06

 

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